Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
